‘Miracles’ after U.S. soldier decides to adopt Iraqi

‘Passion of Christ’ inspires American to bring disabled boy back to the U.S.

	Scott Southworth, right, is seen with his adopted son, Ala’a, in July 2007 in his home in Mauston, Wis. Southworth first met Ala’a, who has cerebral palsy, at the Mother Teresa orphanage in Baghdad in 2003 while he was serving in Iraq.  View related photos
Andy Manis / AP

updated 4:02 p.m. CT, Sun., Dec. 23, 2007

MAUSTON, Wis. - Capt. Scott Southworth knew he’d face violence, political strife and blistering heat when he was deployed to one of Baghdad’s most dangerous areas. But he didn’t expect Ala’a Eddeen.

Ala’a was 9 years old, strong of will but weak of body — he suffered from cerebral palsy and weighed just 55 pounds. He lived among about 20 kids with physical or mental disabilities at the Mother Teresa orphanage, under the care of nuns who preserved this small oasis in a dangerous place.

On Sept. 6, 2003, halfway through his 13-month deployment, Southworth and his military police unit paid a visit to the orphanage. They played and chatted with the children; Southworth was talking with one little girl when Ala’a dragged his body to the soldier’s side.

Black haired and brown eyed, Ala’a spoke to the 31-year-old American in the limited English he had learned from the sisters. He recalled the bombs that struck government buildings across the Tigris River.

“Bomb-Bing! Bomb-Bing!” Ala’a said, raising and lowering his fist.

“I’m here now. You’re fine,” the captain said.

Over the next 10 months, the unit returned to the orphanage again and again. The soldiers would race kids in their wheelchairs, sit them in Humvees and help the sisters feed them.

To Southworth, Ala’a was like a little brother. But Ala’a — who had longed for a soldier to rescue him — secretly began referring to Southworth as “Baba,” Arabic for “Daddy.”

Then, around Christmas, a sister told Southworth that Ala’a was getting too big. He would have to move to a government-run facility within a year.

“Best case scenario was that he would stare at a blank wall for the rest of his life,” Southworth said.

To this day, he recalls the moment when he resolved that that would not happen.

“I’ll adopt him,” he said.

So many reasons not to help
Before Southworth left for Iraq, he was chief of staff for a state representative. He was single, worked long days and squeezed in his service as a national guardsman — military service was a family tradition. His great-great-greatgrandfather served in the Civil War, his grandfather in World War II, his father in Vietnam.

The family had lived in the tiny central Wisconsin city of New Lisbon for 150 years. Scott was raised as an evangelical Christian; he attended law school with a goal of public service, running unsuccessfully for state Assembly at the age of 25.

There were so many reasons why he couldn’t bring a handicapped Iraqi boy into his world.

He had no wife or home; he knew nothing of raising a disabled child; he had little money and planned to run for district attorney in his home county.

Just as important, Iraqi law prohibits foreigners from adopting Iraqi children.

Southworth prayed and talked with family and friends.

His mother, who had cared for many disabled children, explained the difficulty. She also told him to take one step at a time and let God work.

Southworth’s decision was cemented in spring 2004, while he and his comrades watched Mel Gibson’s film, “The Passion of the Christ.” Jesus Christ’s sacrifice moved him. He imagined meeting Christ and Ala’a in heaven, where Ala’a asked: “Baba, why didn’t you ever come back to get me?”

“Everything that I came up with as a response I felt ashamed. I wouldn’t want to stand in the presence of Jesus and Ala’a and say those things to him.”

And so, in his last weeks in Iraq, Southworth got approval from Iraq’s Minister of Labor to take Ala’a to the United States for medical care.

He was told it would be nearly impossible
His parents had filed signatures so he wouldn’t miss the cutoff to run for district attorney. He knocked on doors, telling people he wanted to be tough on criminals who committed injustices against children.

He never mentioned his intention to adopt Ala’a.

He won office — securing a job and an income.

Everything seemed to be in place. But when Southworth contacted an immigration attorney, he was told it would be nearly impossible to bring Ala’a to the United States.

Ala’a prays to be taken to America
Undaunted, Southworth and the attorney started the paperwork to bring Ala’a over on humanitarian parole, used for urgent reasons or significant public benefit.

A local doctor, a cerebral palsy expert, a Minneapolis hospital, all said they would provide Ala’a free care. Other letters of support came from a minister, the school district, the lieutenant governor, a congressman, chaplain, a sister at the orphanage and an Iraqi doctor.

“We crossed political boundaries. We crossed religious boundaries. There was just a massive effort — all on behalf of this little boy who desperately needed people to actually take some action and not just feel sorry for him,” Southworth said.

He mailed the packet on Dec. 16, 2004, to the Department of Homeland Security.

On New Year’s Eve, his cell phone rang. It was Ala’a.

“What are you doing?” Scott asked him.

“I was praying,’” Ala’a responded.

“Well, what were you praying for?”

“I prayed that you would come to take me to America,” Ala’a said.

Southworth almost dropped the phone. Ala’a knew nothing of his efforts, and he couldn’t tell him yet for fear that the boy might inadvertently tell the wrong person, upending the delicate process.

‘And forever started’
By mid-January, Homeland Security called Southworth’s attorney to say it had approved humanitarian parole. Within three hours, Southworth had plane tickets.

He hardly slept as he worked the phones to make arrangements, calling the American embassy, hotels and the orphanage. His Iraqi translator agreed to risk his life to get Ala’a to the embassy to obtain documentation. Like a dream, all the pieces fell into place.

Southworth returned to Iraq for the first time since a deployment that left him emotionally, physically and spiritually exhausted.

His unit had trained Iraqi police from sunup to sundown; he saw the devastation wrought by two car bombings, and counted dead bodies. Mortar and rocket attacks were routine. Some 20 in his unit were wounded, and one died. He knew that nothing could be taken for granted in Baghdad.

So when he saw Ala’a in the airport for the first time since leaving Iraq, he was relieved.

“He was in my custody then. I could hug him. I could hold him. I could protect him.

“And forever started.”

They made it to Wisconsin late Jan. 20, 2005. The next morning, Ala’a awoke to his first sight of snow.

He closed his eyes and grimaced.

“Baba! Baba! The water is getting all over me!”

“It’s not water, it’s snooooow,” Southworth told him.

Thriving in America
Police found Ala’a abandoned on a Baghdad street at around 3 years old. No one knows where he came from.

In all his life in Iraq, Ala’a saw a doctor 10 times. He surpassed that in his first six months in the United States.

Ala’a’s cerebral palsy causes low muscle tone, spastic muscles in the legs, arms and face. It hinders him when he tries to crawl, walk or grasping objects. He needs a wheelchair to get around, often rests his head on his shoulder and can’t easily sit up.

Physical therapy has helped him control his head and other muscles. He can now maneuver his way out of his van seat and stabilize his legs on the ground.

“I’m not the same guy I used to be,” he said.

He clearly has thrived. At 13, he’s doubled his weight to 111 pounds.

Tears filled his eyes
Ala’a’s condition doesn’t affect his mind, although he’s still childlike — he wants to be a Spiderman when he grows up.

Ala’a’s English has improved and he loves music and school, math and reading especially. He gets mad when snow keeps him home, even though it’s his second favorite thing, after his father.

At first, he didn’t want to talk about Iraq; he would grow angry when someone tried to talk to him in Arabic. But in the fall of 2006, Scott showed Ala’a’s classmates an Arabic version of “Sesame Street” and boasted how Ala’a knew two languages and could teach them.

Soon he was teaching his aide and his grandmother, LaVone.

LaVone is a fixture in Ala’a’s life, supporting her son as he juggles his career and fatherhood. One day, she asked Ala’a if he missed his friends in Iraq.

Would he like to visit them?

Big tears filled his eyes.

“Well, honey, what’s the matter?” asked LaVone.

“Oh, no, Grandma. No. Baba said that I can come to live with him forever,” he pleaded.

“Oh, no, no,” he grandmother said, crying as well. “We would never take you back and leave you there forever. We want you to be Baba’s boy forever.”

The hardest part is over
Southworth knew once he got Ala’a out of Iraq, the hardest part would be over. Iraq had bigger problems to deal with than the whereabouts of a single orphan.

On June 4, Ala’a officially became Southworth’s son. Though he was born in the spring of 1994, they decided to celebrate his birthday as the day they met — Sept. 6.

Morry Gash / AP Scott Southworth makes some dinner as his adopted son Ala’a watches TV on Nov. 20 in their home in Mauston, Wis.

Life has settled into a routine. Father and son have moved into a new house with an intercom system, a chair lift to the basement and toilet handles.

Southworth showers him, brushes his teeth and washes his hands. He has traded in his Chrysler Concorde for a minivan — it was too hard to lift his son out of the car.

In October, the Wisconsin’s deputy adjunct general gave Southworth, now a major, permission to change units because of Ala’a. His former unit was going to Guantanamo Bay for a one-year deployment, and he didn’t want to leave his son behind, at least for now.

He hopes one day to marry to his longtime girlfriend and have more children. He may run for Congress or governor someday — he’s already won re-election once, and plans to run again next fall.

‘Life is a gift they say’
Not everything is perfect. Ala’a never encountered thunderstorms in Baghdad, and the flash-boom reminds him of bombs. He is starting to get over it, although he still weeps during violent storms.

But Ala’a — who picked out his own name, which means to be near God — knows he’s where he belongs. Southworth always said Ala’a picked him, not the other way around. They were brought together, Southworth believes, by a “web of miracles.”

Ala’a likes to sing Sarah McLachlan’s song, “Ordinary Miracle,” from “Charlotte’s Web,” one of his favorite movies. His head and body lean to one side as he sings off-key.

“It’s just another ordinary miracle today. Life is like a gift they say. Wrapped up for you everyday.”

10/18/2007 2:02:20 PM Why I Support Our President and Victory I joined the Army in January of 1995. To be honest, my motivating factor was that I was engaged and in a dead end job. I needed direction, motivation, and maturity. My sister was supposed to join the Army, but at the last minute backed out. Feeling bad, she gave the recruiter the name of her punk, purple-haired brother as a likely candidate for military service. Keep in mind that I was a head-banger with shoulder length long hair. Depending on when you ask, my hair was either purple, orange, red, green, or black (or some combination of the colors). The recruiter called me and I resisted. I refused to step foot into that recruiting office. My father is a retired United States Navy Command Master Chief who used to work with the Navy’s recruiting command, so I knew that if I stepped foot into that recruiting station, the chances of me joining the Army went up about 80%. So, the recruiter came to me.I put up a big front about not joining the Army, but I knew that I wanted to do it. I just didn’t want any of my friends to know that I wanted to do it. I made it look like I joined kicking and screaming. The truth is I was getting extremely frustrated with our government and military. Just two years earlier, Ramzi Yousef blew up a truck under the World Trade Center in the hopes of bringing America to its knees. It was treated like a criminal offense. Six Americans died that day and more than 1,000 were injured. But, we did nothing in my eyes to prevent another attack nor address the root causes of it - extremist Islam. Instead of fighting Al Qaeda, President Clinton felt that the Branch Davidians were more of a threat and invaded them instead. On November 13, 1995, a car bomb with the equivalent of 200 pounds of TNT exploded in the courtyard of the Office of the Program Manager, Saudi Arabia National Guard, known as OPM-SANG. The explosion killed five Americans and injured more than 30. Just seven months later, on June 25, 1996, extremist Muslims struck the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. Ninteen American servicemen and a Saudi were killed and 372 others were injured. Up to that point, the bombing was the largest ever directed against Americans. Again, we did nothing under the administration in place at the time except refuse to promote the Brigadier General in charge of the buildings. The next four years would bring the 1998 US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, the foiled July 1997 plot to bomb the New York Subway system and December 1999 “millennium plot” to attack Seattle, and the USS Cole attack in 2000. Another 240 Americans were killed and more than 4,100 were injured in the combined attacks. More Americans died during all these attacks and the worst we did was launch a couple of cruise missiles into the Afghani desert. Nothing was done to counter the mounting threat against us. I don’t need to mention what happened in September 2001. But, there was a marked difference in what happened AFTER that attack. Our President, George W. Bush, didn’t sit on his hands and sigh about how sad it is that Muslims hate us. He did something about it. He took the fight to the enemy and he hasn’t stopped yet. And he won’t stop until 1) the terrorists give up (which won’t happen) or 2) he leaves office. I finally have a president who is willing to guarantee freedom and victory and who isn’t ashamed of stopping the attacks at their source - the Middle East. President Bush cares deeply about this country. I could see it in his eyes when I and a some fellow bloggers sat down with him last month. He’s got conviction and will NOT govern this nation based on polls and political opposition. He does what is right and what is right is to defeat this enemy BEFORE they have a chance to regroup and attack us again. This conviction has cost thousands of American lives - the TRUE martyrs in this war. I hesitate to say because it sounds so bad, but it was worth it in my opinion. I was injured in Iraq and I have friends who were injured and the hell that we live on a daily basis is worth taking the fight to them. Did Iraq attack us first? Well, yes and no. They fired on us numerous times while enforcing the no-fly zone and attempted to assassinate Bush #41. And Iraq also harbored terrorist leader Musab al Zarqawi. Though not a member of Al Qaeda at the time, he frequently worked with the terrorist organization. Doesn’t matter. Iraq knowingly harbored terrorists. Ansar al Islam was on the payroll of Saddam. They frequently collaborated with AQ by sharing training grounds and providing technical assistance. They were also Saddam’s surrogates in his war against the Kurds. Saddam handed out $25,000 checks to the families of suicide bombers in Israel - terrorists. Terrorism attacked us and just as Bush said after the 9/11 attacks, “We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them.” Finally, we did something about terrorism. Why did it have to take George W. Bush? It didn’t have to. 1SG Grisham joined the Army in 1994 in San Antonio, TX, the son of a retired Navy Command Master Chief. In 2003, he was deployed with 3/7 Cavalry, 3rd Infantry Division for OIF I. He fought his way at the “tip of the spear” all the way up to Baghdad and eventually Fallujah. He was injured outside As Samawah during an Iraqi artillery strike while trying to save some EPWs in the line of fire. He was awarded an impact Bronze Star Medal with V device and the Army Commendation Medal for his actions in combat.He is currently stationed at Redstone Arsenal, AL as a First Sergeant. He runs the critically acclaimed milblog, A Soldier’s Perspective and a tribute site to his fallen brothers and sisters called They Have Names. He is married and has three children. 0 Comments By Grisham, CJ http://www.vetsforfreedom.com/troopblog/blogitem.aspx?id=130

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“The Factor’s” person of the year is the subject of this evening’s Talking Points Memo. On Wednesday, Time magazine will announce its person of the year. And on its Web site, Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling is the leading vote getter. Memo to Time: No.

Al Gore is also a crowd favorite because of his global warming campaign. Ahmadinejad getting some attention. But again, he would not be a good choice and Time knows it.

Now “The Factor’s” Person of the Year must meet some very strict requirements. The person must have done something extraordinary, must be a world player, and must have changed history in some way. That is our yardstick.

And so, “The Factor” person of the year is General David Petraeus, who has turned a disastrous military situation in Iraq into a possible victory in less than a year. You will remember how the general got worked over by some Congress people, how many folks said publicly the so-called “surge” in Iraq would not work.

Well, they were wrong. Violence is now at the lowest levels since the conflict began in 2003. —Obviously, a stunning turn around in less than a year.

As “Talking Points” has stated, there are Americans who desperately want the USA to lose in Iraq. Some of those people are in the media. So reporting on the surge has been sparse to say the least.

The hate-Bush crowd simply will never admit anything good can come from the Iraq conflict. These people are bitter, dishonest, and of course, damaging to America.

A fair amount of people can oppose the war in Iraq yet want to see their country succeed in that place. There’s no question that a stable Iraq is good for the world because it provides a bulwark against Islamic terrorism and Iranian expansion.

The cost has been great. We all know that. In suffering and cash. And the Iraqi government is still a mess. But General Petraeus, backed by a brave and professional U.S. military, has restored much order, largely defeated the Iraqi A Qaeda thugs, and at least given the good people of that country a chance to prosper. General David Petraeus is “The Factor” person of the year by a wide margin.

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One of the Last World War I Veterans Dies at 109Friday, December 21, 2007 

AP J. Russell CoffeyNORTH BALTIMORE, Ohio  —  The last World War I veteran in Ohio, and one of only three known remaining

U.S. veterans of the conflict, has died.

 J. Russell Coffey was the last WWI vet in the state, according to the Veterans Affairs Department. He died Thursday at the age of 109, said the Smith-Crates Funeral Home in North Baltimore, about 35 miles south of Toledo. The funeral home did not say where Coffey died or the cause of death. He had been living in the

Blakely

Care

Center, a nursing home.

 Coffey, born Sept. 1, 1898, did not see action overseas. He enlisted in the Army while he was a student at

Ohio

State

University in October 1918, a month before the Allied powers and

Germany signed a cease-fire agreement.

 Coffey played semipro baseball, earned a doctorate in education from

New York

University, taught high school and college and raised a family.

 He drove his car until he was 104 and lived on his own until three years ago, according to the funeral home. The other known surviving American soldiers are Frank Buckles, 106, of Charles Town, W.Va., and Harry Landis, of

Sun City Center, Fla., according to the Veterans Affairs Department.

 

Violence quelled, Baghdad on spot  12-17-2007  

President Bush’s troop surge will end this month, and although the White House is pressing the Iraqi government to capitalize on the U.S. military’s success, it is declining to set hard deadlines for Iraqi lawmakers to pass critical legislation.

Even the strongest backers of the president’s Iraq policy say there is a political risk to this approach.

Sen. Lindsey Graham said the United States has “made military history” with the “most successful counterinsurgency operation ever.” But the South Carolina Republican also said that “at the end of the day, the American public will be looking for political breakthroughs.”

The Iraqi government “should do this by the first of next year,” Mr. Graham said.

Violence in Iraq is at its lowest levels since the first year of the American invasion.

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the man responsible for the ground campaign in Iraq, said that the first six months of 2007 were probably the most violent period since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The past six months, however, had seen some of the lowest levels of violence since the conflict began, Gen. Odierno said, attributing the change to an increase in both U.S. troops and better-trained Iraqi forces.

“I feel we are back in ‘03 and early ‘04. Frankly. I was here then, and the environment is about the same in terms of security in my opinion,” he told reporters yesterday in Baghdad. “What is different from then is that the Iraqi security forces are significantly more mature.”

When Mr. Bush in January announced the surge of about 30,000 U.S. troops to Iraq, he said the goal was to create “breathing space” for the Iraqi government to pass laws demonstrating the reconciliation of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions.

But the Iraqi government has not yet passed an oil revenue-sharing law, a law approving provincial elections or a law allowing former Ba’ath Party members to re-enter the government.

The first of the U.S. surge troops — about 2,500 — will begin leaving Iraq this month, with the goal of returning to pre-surge troop levels of about 130,000 by March.

Mr. Bush has said he is disappointed with the lack of progress on the legislation and has communicated his impatience to Iraqi leaders.White House press secretary Dana Perino said recently that the Iraqi government has the “space they need,” and Mr. Bush is “definitely pushing them in order to get more done.”

And Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, in a speech to Middle East leaders in Bahrain last weekend, issued one of the administration’s strongest challenges yet to leaders in Iraq’s central government.

“The Iraqi government must use this breathing space, bought with the blood of American, coalition and Iraqi troops, to pass critical legislation,” Mr. Gates said.

The public is preoccupied with the economy and the 2008 presidential primaries for the moment, but as U.S. troops draw down in the coming months, violence could spike — once again roiling an already war-weary nation.

Though many Democrats have scaled back their criticism of the Iraq war, top Democratic leaders continue to decry Mr. Bush’s policy because there has been neglible political progress in Iraq.

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·        Shooting Straight Note – The following letter was sent to the family of Ken & Kelly Hollopeter from the President. Both of the Hollopeter’s sons had served in Iraq. One lost his life in the liberation of Iraq. His name was Joe Hollopeter. 

·        The President’s letter could not be scanned in, thus it had to be retyped and does not give his signature, the original letter did, with the words God Bless you in black ink. Ken & Kelly’s letter is below the Presidents. This was the original letter sent to the President. Shooting Straight was given permission to show both letters from the Hollopeters.  

 

October 26, 2007

 

Dear Kelly and Ken:

Your heartfelt note just made it to the Oval Office. I am inspired by your continued support for our men and women in uniform and their mission. Brave individuals like Joe and Tyler are what make our Nation’s military the greatest force for good in the history of the world.  

You and your family have shown tremendous courage in the face of terrible loss and grief.

America will never forget Joes’ sacrifice, and we will not accept anything less than complete victory over freedom’s ruthless enemies. I am determined to succeed so we can build a safer and more peaceful world for future generations.

 

Laura and I will keep you and your family in our prayers. May God bless you, and may God bless

America.

 

Sincerely,

 

George W. Bush

Dear Mr. President Bush,

I am a military mom, a very proud military mom. As I write this letter, I have two powerful emotions at war within my soul. They are the emotions of pride and sorrow.

Pride because I am extremely proud of my two sons, CPL Josiah Hollopeter and 1LT Tyler Hollopeter, both who have served in the U.S. Army. They were stationed in Iraq at the same time. The battle of emotions builds as sorrow forges on. You see, both of my sons returned from Iraq at the same time. The younger one, 1LT Hollopeter, escorted his older brother CPL Hollopeter home to us in a flag draped casket. The sorrow that their father and I are experiencing goes deeply into our souls. The healing process will take the rest of our lives. I am proud of my sons, not just for what either of them have accomplished, but because they are proud to be serving their country and they believed in their mission.

Since my son’s death, I have learned a lot about his life and the soldier he had become. Letters from his fellow soldiers indicated that he not only was respected as a soldier but as a friend as well. Phrases such as, “He was the heart and soul of this unit.” “Hollopeter was the best soldier the Army had.”, “You could count on Hollopeter to keep the troops’ spirits up.” These all help his father and me to find some peace in our tragic loss.

The real reason I am writing to you, President Bush, is to let you know in a small way how my son felt about being in the Army and in Iraq. One soldier wrote us saying at the awards presentation in Iraq, CPL Hollopeter was the only one, while receiving his award to stand and “Thank President Bush for the opportunity to he here,” You see, Josiah had decided to get in the military right after 9-11. It took him 3 years to overcome obstacles that were in his way. He even called the White House and asked to speak to “President George W. Bush.” When he finally made it into the Army, he became the best he could be. His goal was to be trained as a sniper. He served on a 4 man team in Iraq. He believed he was where he was supposed to be and doing what he was called to do. Another soldier wrote that CPL Hollopeter had said more than once that he knew he was supposed to be there. In my last conversation with my son, I asked him, “Do you feel you are accomplishing anything?” He said, “Yes mom but it’s going to take a lot of time and we need more man power.” He went on to say, “I just wish President Bush could get it taken care of and have the victory before he leaves office.” He supported you President Bush 100%.

Our community of Valentine, Nebraska and the surrounding communities of Ainsworth, Johnstown, and Wood Lake as well as the entire state of Nebraska confirmed in our hearts that our son went to war as a young man, but came home an American Hero!

Thank you President Bush, from our son CPL Josiah Hollopeter and from us, his proud parents, for leading our country during this stressful time of war.

With our prayer for you and our country,

Ken & Kelly Hollopeter

News

Post publishes AU class project

By Rachel Trainer on 12/6/07

The Iraq war is the most important 2008 election issue to students, according to School of Communication professor Jane Hall, who taught a class in which students conducted a national survey on students and the upcoming election.

In the survey, Hall’s “Politics and the Media” class asked college students across the United Status to reveal which topics were most important to them and will be deciding factors in the 2008 elections. The 25 students in the class worked with The Washington Post, produced an entire survey and had their stories about the survey published on the Post’s Web site, according to Hall.

SURVEY RESULTS Students from around the country weighed in on election ‘08 in a survey conducted by professor Jane Hall’s “Politics and the Media” class. Top responses to some questions on the survey are below: “What is the most important issue to you, personally?” Education: 12 percent Iraq: 12 percent Health care: 9 percent Economy: 8 percent Foreign policy: 6 percent Abortion: 6 percent SOURCE: “Politics and the Media” survey -Allie Feras

“It’s fairly unusual for a publication to do this,” said Hall, a former journalist for the Los Angeles Times.

This was also an opportunity for The Washington Post to publish a survey about college students created by college students, she said.

The process started with the entire class discussing topics the students felt were important to today’s youth, said Marc Tomik, a senior in the School of Public Affairs who took Hall’s class.

From The Times

December 17, 2007

Iraq - the best story of the year

Against all the odds, an optimistic prediction comes true

Tim Hames

Never make predictions,” said the American baseball manager Casey Stengel, “especially about the future.” Alas, I have never been able to resist an invitation to emulate Nostradamus, though without developing the flair for ambiguity and impenetrability that has enabled his enthusiasts to claim that he foresaw everything.

So when, for the January 1 edition of this newspaper, I was asked to write 100 words of predictions for 2007, I embraced the task with diligence and as many prophecies as possible were squeezed into the space available.

So imagine my horror when I opened the page of predictions and discovered that most of my colleagues had deftly managed to offer the fewest possible hostages to fortune in their contributions or had written elegant homilies on how mad it was to be straying into this line of business in the first place.

Daniel Finkelstein noted that “the record of experts making predictions is not very good” and, hence, the best strategy was “to forecast that what happens in the coming year will follow very closely what happened last year”.

The first of these rules is undoubtedly robust. My favourite expert insights include “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943) — my household, incidentally, has those five — along with “who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” (H.M.Warner, the founder of Warner Brothers, defending the silent movie, 1927), and “All attempts at artificial aviation are not only dangerous to life but doomed to failure from an engineering standpoint” (the Editor of The Times, 1905).

The second rule works most of the time but is less useful than it might appear. It is no help if the event involved lacks a precedent. This is demonstrated by the distinctly mixed record of my own reckless predictions. These were, on the one hand, that Gordon Brown would be elected Labour leader unopposed, that Nicolas Sarkozy would become the President of France and that Steve McClaren would not be in charge of the England football team by December 31 and, on the other, that Hilary Benn would be elected deputy leader of the Labour Party (Harriet Harman surely has made the case that he should have been) that Jack Straw, not Alistair Darling, would be the Chancellor (Mr Darling seems to be striving to show that Mr Straw was the smarter bet) and, worst of the lot, that Barack Obama would not run for the US presidency (I blame Oprah).

And there was one more that defied the notion that “the future is the past” completely. It was “Iraq is more peaceful in 2007 than at any time since the 2003 invasion”. Not only is this essentially correct but it is the most important story in the world this year.

By any measure, the US-led surge has been little short of a triumph. The number of American military fatalities is reduced sharply, as is the carnage of Iraqi civilians, Baghdad as a city is functioning again, oil output is above where it stood in March 2003 but at a far stronger price per barrel and, the acid test, many of those who fled to Syria and Jordan are today returning home.

The cheering has, of course, to come accompanied by caveats. Security has certainly been improved, but it remains fragile. Basra and the surrounding areas, handed back by Britain yesterday, are not as violent as they were a few months ago but this comparative peace has been bought at a high price in terms of tolerating intolerance (particularly towards women).

Also, there is a telling contrast between what has been won by the American “surge” and lost through the British “slump”. We once boasted about the virtues of a “softly-softly” style, allegedly honed in Northern Ireland, but the truth is that the British Forces have been so softly-softly that the local militias long ago decided that we were not very serious about using our troops to exercise influence. The Baghdad Government is not impressive and what progress there has been is despite, not because of it. There is much hard work to be done if a constitutional settlement is to be completed.

Yet none of this should detract from what has been achieved in Iraq so unexpectedly this year. First, the country will now have the time to establish itself. A year ago it seemed as if American forces would have been withdrawn in ignominious fashion either well before the end of the Bush Administration or, at best, days after the next president came to office. This will not now happen. The self-evident success of the surge has obliged the Democrats to start talking about almost anything else and the calls to cut and run have abated. If the US Army remains in Iraq in strength, continuing on its present path, then deals on a constitution and the division of oil revenues between provinces will be realised.

Secondly, the aspiration that Iraq could be some sort of “beacon” in the region is no longer ridiculous. It will never be Sweden with beards, but there has been the development of a vibrant capitalist class and a media of a diversity that is unique in the region. Were Iraq to emerge with a federal political structure, regular local and national elections and an economic dynamism in which the many, not the few, could share, then it would be a model.

Finally, Iraq in 2007 has illustrated that the words “intelligent American policy” are not an oxymoron. The tragedy is that the approach of General David Petraeus could and should have been adopted four years ago in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s enforced departure. One prominent American politician alone has spent that time publicly demanding the extra soldiers which, in 2007, have been Iraq’s salvation. That statesman is John McCain. Is it too much to hope (let alone predict) that he will reap his reward at the polls in 2008?

 

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Barnes: An Astonishing Turnaround on Iraq
December 19, 2007 • By Fred Barnes

 

An astonishing turnaround occurred in the Senate on Tuesday: 70 senators voted to fund the Iraq war with a fresh $70 billion and no strings attached. Think about this a moment. Last winter, after Democrats captured the Senate and House, it seemed likely they’d succeed in limiting or ending the Iraq war, probably by setting a firm timetable for withdrawal of American troops. After all, both President Bush and the war itself were highly unpopular. The Democratic triumph in the election made that clear, even to those who doubted opinion polls. And Democrats made the anti-Iraq crusade their top priority in the new Congress. Now, the 70-vote approval of the war by the Senate represents the breathtaking dimension of their failure.

For much of 2007, the question was whether Democrats would get 60 votes to halt Senate debate, pass an anti-war measure, and send it to the president. And Democrats came close to achieving that. To belabor the point, they had in the neighborhood of 60 senators ready to vote against the war. Compare that with the 70 votes in favor of the war on Tuesday. That’s a historic shift on a high visibility issue that has strongly emotional opposition. Do the math. You don’t see turnarounds like this very often, especially in a Congress as polarized as this current one.

Last summer, Republican leaders figured that Democrats finally had the 60 votes. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell informed the White House of this. Veteran Republican senators - Richard Lugar, Pete Domenici, John Warner - were jumping ship. More were expected to. Democrats had come up with a clever proposal for restraining the war. It was the proposal by Senator James Webb of Virginia to lengthen the time soldiers had to remain at home before redeployment to Iraq. Warner, in fact, endorsed it, but he changed his mind after military officials told him the Webb scheme was unworkable. The proposal lost.

But what if one of the anti-war measures had passed? True, Bush would have vetoed it and chances are Senate Republicans would have mustered the 34 votes to sustain his veto. But congressional passage of a bill limiting the war would have been politically disastrous even if it didn’t go into effect. It would have undercut the president, galvanized the opposition, and most likely prompted a stampede of congressional Republicans away from support for the war.

Everything changed, of course, when General David Petraeus, the Iraq commander, testified before Congress in September. He said there had been measurable success in reducing violence in iraq, including a sharp drop in American casualties. Since January, Petraeus had been carrying out the new Iraq policy that Bush had announced in January to add troops - the so-called surge - and implement a new counterinsurgency strategy. By the time the Senate voted on Tuesday, the decline in violence in Iraq had become more dramatic.

Credit for keeping anti-war measures from reaching the White House goes to a number of senators. Republicans John McCain and Lindsey Graham and Democratic ally Joe Lieberman were able to persuade queasy senators from voting against the war at critical times. McConnell, once worried that the war would drag on and damage Republican senators running in 2008, was key to holding the line. So was Trent Lott, the Republican whip. And the president never flinched.

To be fair, all of the 22 Democrats who voted for the $70 billion haven’t suddenly become backers of the war. Rather, some merely wanted to pass the omnibus budget bill, which Republicans said they’d block if Iraq money weren’t passed first. Still, 70 votes is 70 votes, and this majority included Carl Levin, one of the war’s chief Democratic critics.